Tag Archives: polling

Slipping under the media radar

17 Feb



A most interesting opening to yesterday’s blog post in UK Polling Report:

    “ComRes’s monthly online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out and has topline figures of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 14%.

    The changes from last month are bit complex. As regular readers will know, there has been a bit of a back and forth in ComRes’s methodology. For most of last year ComRes treated likelihood to vote for minor parties differently to how they did it for the main parties – for the big three they included people who said they were 5/10 or more likely to vote (weighted proportionally), for minor parties they only included those who said they were 10/10 certain to vote. In their December online poll they experimented with treating all parties the same on turnout, producing a substantial jump in UKIP support. In January they used their old method, which dropped UKIP back down by 4 points. Unfortunately this wasn’t flagged up in media reporting of the polls, giving the impression of UKIP increasing in December and then dropping back down in January after Cameron’s EU referendum pledge, when actually much of the movement was due to methodological reasons.

    Anyway, the back and forth seems to be behind us – ComRes have now shifted to treating all the parties the same when it comes to taking account of likelihood to vote…” [Emphasis my own]

Unfortunately for the Lib Dems the numbers remain worrying, even if they win the Eastleigh by-election, which by the way is looking increasingly likely!

And naturally, what would a British politics post be without the requisite clip from Yes, Prime Minister. This particular one should be titled The Perfect Balanced Sample and contains one of my favourite-ever Humphrey Appleby quotes: “What’s that got to do with it? Things don’t happen just because Prime Ministers are very keen on them! Neville Chamberlain was very keen on peace.” Enjoy and I hope you’re all having a good weekend.

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